The opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Blueprint editorial staff alone. The information is accurate as of the publish date, but always check the provider’s website for the most current information. Analysts see the most upside for the technology sector (19.8%) and the consumer discretionary sector (18.2%). That said, the communication services and energy sectors have the highest percentage of “buy” ratings, with both at 63%, respectively. Bitcoin’s performance in a recession would depends on the actions of monetary and fiscal policy makers, noted Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG.

1. Investors should think through what that scenario would say about the backdrop for equities, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in a Monday note.
2. The April jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell back to a multi-decade low of 3.4.
3. After every other Fed meeting (including the September meeting), the central bank releases a summary of economic projections (SEP) showing staffers’ opinions of what the federal funds rate should be over the next few years.
4. Another key factor this year is that we’re in year 4 of the presidential-election cycle, and that year has historically tended to be strong—particularly when it follows a down mid-term year (which we saw this cycle).
5. “We have long been of the belief that it is the economy that is most important, and not lower interest rates for the sake of propping up stock prices,” Zaccarelli says.

Rising earnings providing support

Contrast that with the median historical bull market, which has lasted 30 months and produced gains of around 90%—looking at the past 100 years or so of market history. Fortunately, S&P 500 companies have reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings growth of 6% year-over-year, and they have remained resilient in a difficult inflationary environment. In fact, the S&P 500 is on track for its best quarter of earnings growth since the first quarter of 2022. The S&P 500 has resumed its march higher as strong first quarter earnings numbers have helped ease investor fears about inflation and a potentially delayed Federal Reserve pivot to interest rate cuts. The U.S. presidential election is the most significant potential market catalyst in the coming months.

Term of the month: Interest rate cuts

Lee said equities could end up dropping as much as 7%, predicting the S&P 500 could bottom at as low as 5,350, slightly lower from that the benchmark index traded Monday morning. Farran Powell is the lead editor of investing at USA TODAY Blueprint. She was previously the assistant managing editor of investing at U.S. Her work has appeared in numerous publications including TheStreet, Mansion Global, CNN, CNN Money, DNAInfo, Yahoo! Finance, MSN Money and the New York Daily News. She holds a BSc from the London School of Economics and an MA from the University of Texas at Austin.

Uncertainties surround inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and the 2024 election. With so much up in the air, staying informed is the best way to prepare for 2025. In this scenario, inflation falls back to the Fed’s 2% target without the U.S. economy tipping into a recession. If the Fed cuts rates too soon, it risks a potentially devastating rebound in inflation.

Tesla shares jump 3% as Elon Musk denies report of revenue split with xAI

The communications services sector has been the best-performing S&P 500 sector of 2024 thus far, led by top performing stocks Netflix (NFLX) and Meta Platforms (META). Investors can already earn 5% or higher in online savings accounts heading into June, and those interest rates will likely remain elevated for at least the next several months. The S&P 500 has also historically performed very well in the second half of election years under a first-term president, such as current President Joe Biden. “A cooler economy is limiting businesses’ ability to raise prices, which will help slow inflation in the second half of the year,” Adams says. He says high interest rates are weighing on consumer durable goods spending and multifamily residential investment. “I do think it’s really a question of keeping policy at the current rate for longer than had been thought,” he said.

Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said in a note Friday that the latest jobs report is still consistent with a growing economy and validates his S&P 500 target of 6,000, which implies 11% upside. According to Bespoke Investment Group, October has historically been the month the biggest stock market surges have begun. This earnings momentum is allowing the market’s P/E ratio to come down somewhat. In the next chart, we see that the forward kab review is kab a scam or legit forex broker P/E ratio (meaning, the P/E based on estimated earnings for the next 12 months) has been hitting lower highs—even as the S&P 500 has been making higher highs. Impact on your credit may vary, as credit scores are independently determined by credit bureaus based on a number of factors including the financial decisions you make with other financial services organizations.

Examples are hypothetical, and we encourage you to seek personalized advice from qualified professionals regarding specific investment issues. Our estimates are based on past market performance, and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. High interest rates increase borrowing costs for consumers and corporations, weighing on economic growth and profitability. He anticipates the FOMC will opt not to cut interest rates for most—if not all—of 2024 but says a delayed pivot to rate cuts may not derail the bull market rally.

Paré and Woods both say that it’s possible for some people to enjoy sports betting in moderation, provided that they set healthy limits for themselves. However, Paré says that a financially-stressed household may worsen its situation by diverting money to sports betting. The proportion of S&P 500 stocks that advanced over the number of companies that declined reached a new high in August. That’s another bullish signal for stocks, which could suggest another market peak is on its way, Lee said. That’s a bullish signal for stocks, considering the general pattern of stocks relative to bonds since the start of September, Lee noted. Wayne Duggan has a decade of experience covering breaking market news and providing analysis and commentary related to popular stocks.

Previously, Bannister had said in a report shared with clients and the media during the opening days of the year that markets would advance during the first half of 2023. However, much of the macro data may be providing a “false signal” as leading indicators point to downward trends in EPS surprise and margins over the coming months, said Wilson. Bitcoin deepened its losses on Monday, falling more than 4.8% to the lowest level in almost two weeks, as Binance, the largest crypto exchange, paused bitcoin withdrawals twice over the weekend. That contrasts with more bearish voices on Wall Street like Citi Research chief U.S. economist Andrew Hollenhorst, who warned that the recent payroll data are signaling a recession is on the way.

While job growth has slowed, economists point to low unemployment claims, robust corporate earnings, strong GDP readings and estimates, upbeat retail sales, and rising wages. Similarly, Ned Davis Research said the stock market is likely is apple stock poised to rise after declining 10% over the last month to stage a “persistent ascent” that will be supported by seasonal trends in the fourth quarter. Namely, October through December is typically the year’s strong three-month period. Of course, past performance is never a guarantee of future results, and all this assumes that the market follows a rational valuation roadmap, which is not always the case.

U.S. stocks limped higher at the open on Monday, with only the Nasdaq Composite lingering staking app support adds to 700% weekly gains for new cryptocurrency top 100 entrant in the red. Shares of regional banks traded sharply higher, building on Friday’s recovery after the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF recorded their worst weekly losses since March. Investors are increasingly worried that a recession would begin in the U.S. later this year.

Early last month saw stocks tumble as U.S. economic data raised fears of a recession, and the yen carry trade unwound. And as September began, the S&P 500 had its worst week in a year and a half. But I believe it’s fair to say at this point that the Fed has an easing bias (as opposed to a hiking bias), given that there are signs of growth moderating and given that inflation has fallen to the 3% to 4% range. The forward curve has been pricing in the first rate cut before the end of year, which makes sense in my opinion. If the September SEP shows a median federal funds rate prediction for the end of 2024 that is lower than the newly-announced rate, that’s a signal that more cuts are likely in the months ahead.